Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
ITASerie A · Matchday 9Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
AC Milan
5th · 21 pts2–4FULL TIME
Bologna
9th · 14 pts63% AC
22% Draw
15% Bologna
OUR PICK
AC Milan to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.78
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.60X4.5226.52
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
AC MilanBologna2.1Goals per game1.4
1.2Conceded per game1.3
2.10Points per game1.40
60%Win rate40%
9Goal difference1
10Form, last 5 (pts)12
AC Milan form
WLWLWH Inter3–1
H Bologna2–4
A Udinese0–2
A Bournemouth3–0
H Atalanta3–2
Bologna form
WWWLWH Monza2–1
A AC Milan2–4
A Cagliari0–2
H Inter1–3
A Lecce1–2
Head to head
3
AC
0
Draw
2
Bologna
Oct 2026AC Milan – Bologna2–4
Feb 2026Bologna – AC Milan0–3
Sept 2025AC Milan – Bologna1–0
May 2025AC Milan – Bologna0–1
May 2025AC Milan – Bologna3–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes AC Milan clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.84 for AC Milan, 0.78 for Bologna), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AC Milan sit 5th on 21 points; Bologna are 9th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.