Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
AC Milan
5th · 21 pts3–2FULL TIME
Atalanta
13th · 11 pts61% AC
20% Draw
19% Atalanta
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Over 2.5
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.20
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.64X5.0925.16
Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
63%
Double chance@1.24
1X
81%
Season stats
AC MilanAtalanta2.1Goals per game1.8
1.2Conceded per game1.9
2.10Points per game1.22
60%Win rate33%
9Goal difference-1
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
AC Milan form
WLWLWH Inter3–1
H Bologna2–4
A Udinese0–2
A Bournemouth3–0
H Atalanta3–2
Atalanta form
DDLLWA Fiorentina2–2
H Frosinone4–4
A Ajax2–0
A AC Milan3–2
H Pafos3–1
Head to head
1
AC
1
Draw
3
Atalanta
Oct 2026AC Milan – Atalanta3–2
May 2026AC Milan – Atalanta2–3
Oct 2025Atalanta – AC Milan1–1
Apr 2025AC Milan – Atalanta0–1
Dec 2024Atalanta – AC Milan2–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes AC Milan clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.64 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.25 for AC Milan, 1.20 for Atalanta), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
AC Milan sit 5th on 21 points; Atalanta are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.