Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
NGANPFL · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Umuahia Township Stadium
Abia Warriors
18th · 10 pts0–0FULL TIME
Rivers United
1st · 18 pts15% Abia
24% Draw
61% Rivers
OUR PICK
Rivers United to win
Model probability 61% · fair odds
1.65
Expected goals
0.69 – 1.66
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X216.56X4.1621.65
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.72
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.68
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.72
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.68
NG
60%
Double chance@1.18
X2
85%
Season stats
Abia WarriorsRivers United0.9Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game0.5
0.91Points per game1.64
18%Win rate36%
-7Goal difference10
2Form, last 5 (pts)6
Abia Warriors form
LLDDLA Shooting Stars4–1
H Niger Tornadoes0–1
A Kwara United1–1
H Rivers United0–0
A Enugu Rangers3–1
Rivers United form
DLDDWH Enugu Rangers1–1
A Bendel Insurance2–1
H Barau FC0–0
A Abia Warriors0–0
H Ikorodu City2–0
Head to head
1
Abia
2
Draw
2
Rivers
Oct 2026Abia Warriors – Rivers United0–0
May 2026Rivers United – Abia Warriors3–0
Dec 2025Abia Warriors – Rivers United1–1
Apr 2025Abia Warriors – Rivers United2–0
Nov 2024Rivers United – Abia Warriors1–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Rivers United clear favourites, giving them a 61% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (0.69 for Abia Warriors, 1.66 for Rivers United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Abia Warriors sit 18th on 10 points; Rivers United are 1st on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.