Over 1.5 goals@1.74
Over 1.5
57%
NGANPFL · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Umuahia Township Stadium
Abia Warriors
18th · 10 pts0–1FULL TIME
Niger Tornadoes
8th · 16 pts31% Abia
31% Draw
37% Niger
OUR PICK
Niger Tornadoes to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.69
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.19X3.1822.69
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.44
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.46
X2
69%
Season stats
Abia WarriorsNiger Tornadoes0.9Goals per game0.8
1.5Conceded per game0.7
0.91Points per game1.45
18%Win rate36%
-7Goal difference1
2Form, last 5 (pts)11
Abia Warriors form
LLDDLA Shooting Stars4–1
H Niger Tornadoes0–1
A Kwara United1–1
H Rivers United0–0
A Enugu Rangers3–1
Niger Tornadoes form
DWWDWH Barau FC0–0
A Abia Warriors0–1
H Ikorodu City2–1
A Ranchers Bees0–0
H Kun Khalifat FC1–0
Head to head
3
Abia
1
Draw
1
Niger
Oct 2026Abia Warriors – Niger Tornadoes0–1
Mar 2026Abia Warriors – Niger Tornadoes2–1
Nov 2025Niger Tornadoes – Abia Warriors1–2
May 2025Niger Tornadoes – Abia Warriors1–1
Dec 2024Abia Warriors – Niger Tornadoes2–1
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Abia Warriors 31%, the draw 31%, Niger Tornadoes 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.69 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.91 for Abia Warriors, 1.02 for Niger Tornadoes), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Abia Warriors sit 18th on 10 points; Niger Tornadoes are 8th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.