Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
NGANPFL · Matchday 12Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Umuahia Township Stadium
Abia Warriors
18th · 10 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Doma United
12th · 15 pts32% Abia
26% Draw
42% Doma
OUR PICK
Doma United to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.14X3.7922.40
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.92NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.92
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Abia WarriorsDoma United0.9Goals per game1.3
1.5Conceded per game1.3
0.91Points per game1.50
18%Win rate40%
-7Goal difference0
2Form, last 5 (pts)5
Abia Warriors form
LLDDLA Shooting Stars4–1
H Niger Tornadoes0–1
A Kwara United1–1
H Rivers United0–0
A Enugu Rangers3–1
Doma United form
DDLWLH Ikorodu City2–2
H Kun Khalifat FC1–1
A Nasarawa United2–0
H Warri Wolves1–0
A Katsina United2–1
Head to head
2
Abia
1
Draw
1
Doma
Jun 2024Doma United – Abia Warriors1–1
Jan 2024Abia Warriors – Doma United3–0
May 2023Abia Warriors – Doma United2–0
Feb 2023Doma United – Abia Warriors1–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model makes Doma United slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.18 for Abia Warriors, 1.39 for Doma United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Abia Warriors sit 18th on 10 points; Doma United are 12th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.