Over 1.5 goals@1.50
Over 1.5
66%
SCOPremiership · Matchday 11Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Pittodrie Stadium
Aberdeen
10th · 11 pts0–1FULL TIME
Falkirk
4th · 18 pts38% Aberdeen
28% Draw
34% Falkirk
OUR PICK
Aberdeen to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.65
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.10
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.65X3.5122.96
Goals 2.5Over2.36Under1.66
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Under 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.86
NG
54%
Double chance@1.40
12
72%
Season stats
AberdeenFalkirk1.1Goals per game1.3
1.3Conceded per game1.0
1.00Points per game1.50
27%Win rate42%
-2Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)12
Aberdeen form
LLLWLA Rangers1–0
H Falkirk0–1
A Dundee Utd3–2
H ST Mirren3–1
H ST Johnstone0–1
Falkirk form
WWWWLH Celtic2–0
A Aberdeen0–1
H Kilmarnock3–0
A Hibernian1–2
H Dundee1–2
Head to head
0
Aberdeen
1
Draw
3
Falkirk
Oct 2026Aberdeen – Falkirk0–1
Mar 2026Aberdeen – Falkirk1–1
Jan 2026Falkirk – Aberdeen1–0
Aug 2025Aberdeen – Falkirk0–1
Premiership table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Aberdeen 38%, the draw 28%, Falkirk 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.65 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.18 for Aberdeen, 1.10 for Falkirk), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Aberdeen sit 10th on 11 points; Falkirk are 4th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.