Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
DENSuperliga · Matchday 10Monday, 12 October 2026 · Vejlby Stadion
Aarhus
8th · 12 pts3–0FULL TIME
Sonderjyske
12th · 8 pts48% Aarhus
22% Draw
30% Sonderjyske
OUR PICK
Aarhus to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.07
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.52
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.07X4.5923.34
Goals 2.5Over1.48Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.48
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.49
GG
67%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
AarhusSonderjyske1.3Goals per game1.4
1.6Conceded per game2.4
0.92Points per game0.67
15%Win rate17%
-4Goal difference-12
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Aarhus form
LWWDDA Brondby2–0
A Roskilde1–2
H Viborg2–1
H Egnatia Rrogozhinë1–1
A FC Copenhagen1–1
Sonderjyske form
LWLWLA AC Horsens5–1
H Silkeborg4–0
A Aarhus3–0
H Randers FC4–2
A AB Copenhagen3–1
Head to head
3
Aarhus
1
Draw
1
Sonderjyske
Oct 2026Aarhus – Sonderjyske3–0
May 2026Aarhus – Sonderjyske2–1
Mar 2026Sonderjyske – Aarhus1–1
Nov 2025Aarhus – Sonderjyske2–3
Oct 2025Aarhus – Sonderjyske2–1
Superliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Midtjylland13+1231
2FC Copenhagen12+1426
3Viborg13+823
4Brondby13+322
5FC Nordsjaelland13+320
6Odense13-217
7AC Horsens13+216
8Aarhus13-412
9Silkeborg13-712
10Randers FC13-811
Match preview
Our model makes Aarhus slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.07 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.97 for Aarhus, 1.52 for Sonderjyske), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Aarhus sit 8th on 12 points; Sonderjyske are 12th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.