DEN1. Division · Matchday 13Friday, 30 October 2026 · Aalborg Portland Park

Aalborg

8th · 15 pts

1–1FULL TIME

Hobro

6th · 16 pts

52% Aalborg

23% Draw

25% Hobro

OUR PICK

Aalborg to win

Model probability 52% · fair odds

1.92

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.18

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.92X4.3324.03

Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.19

Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.25

Over 1.5

80%

Over/Under 2.5@1.74

Over 2.5

57%

Both teams to score@1.73

58%

Double chance@1.30

77%

Season stats

AalborgHobro

1.2Goals per game1.2

1.4Conceded per game1.8

1.15Points per game1.23

23%Win rate31%

-2Goal difference-7

3Form, last 5 (pts)3

Aalborg form

DLLDW

H Hobro1–1

A Hillerød2–1

H Vejle0–1

A Esbjerg3–3

A Randers FC0–1

Hobro form

DDLDL

A Aalborg1–1

H Vendsyssel FF2–2

A FC Fredericia3–0

H Kolding IF1–1

A HB Koge5–2

Head to head

Aalborg

Draw

Hobro

Oct 2026Aalborg – Hobro1–1

Aug 2026Hobro – Aalborg2–1

May 2026Aalborg – Hobro1–1

Apr 2026Hobro – Aalborg0–1

Mar 2026Hobro – Aalborg1–0

1. Division table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Hvidovre13+1129

2Vejle13+924

3FC Fredericia13+1223

4AB Copenhagen13+318

5Aarhus Fremad13+118

6Hobro13-716

7Kolding IF13-115

8Aalborg13-215

9Hillerød13-512

10Vendsyssel FF13-712

Match preview

Our model makes Aalborg slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.81 for Aalborg, 1.18 for Hobro), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Aalborg sit 8th on 15 points; Hobro are 6th on 16.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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