Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 25Friday, 23 October 2026 · Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida
A. Italiano
13th · 30 pts1–1FULL TIME
Huachipato
11th · 33 pts42% A.
26% Draw
31% Huachipato
OUR PICK
A. Italiano to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.37
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.18
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.37X3.8123.18
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
A. ItalianoHuachipato1.1Goals per game1.4
1.3Conceded per game1.6
1.15Points per game1.32
27%Win rate36%
-7Goal difference-6
8Form, last 5 (pts)9
A. Italiano form
LDDLDA Deportes Limache2–0
A U. Catolica1–1
H Huachipato1–1
A Colo Colo1–0
H Colo Colo0–0
Huachipato form
DDWWDH D. La Serena0–0
A A. Italiano1–1
H O'Higgins2–0
A Universidad de Concepcion0–2
H Colo Colo0–0
Head to head
1
A.
1
Draw
3
Huachipato
Oct 2026A. Italiano – Huachipato1–1
Apr 2026Huachipato – A. Italiano3–2
Nov 2025Huachipato – A. Italiano2–1
Oct 2025Huachipato – A. Italiano4–2
Sept 2025A. Italiano – Huachipato1–0
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Deportes Limache26+1140
5Everton de Vina26+1040
6Palestino26+238
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Concepción26-235
9Nublense26-935
10D. La Serena26-334
Match preview
Our model makes A. Italiano slight favourites, giving them a 42% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.41 for A. Italiano, 1.18 for Huachipato), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
A. Italiano sit 13th on 30 points; Huachipato are 11th on 33.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.