Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
CHIPrimera División · Matchday 27Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida
A. Italiano
13th · 30 pts22:00KICK-OFF WAT
Coquimbo Unido
7th · 35 pts37% A.
27% Draw
36% Coquimbo
OUR PICK
A. Italiano to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.70
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.25
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.70X3.7222.77
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
A. ItalianoCoquimbo Unido1.1Goals per game1.5
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.20Points per game1.40
28%Win rate40%
-5Goal difference3
8Form, last 5 (pts)6
A. Italiano form
LDDLDA Deportes Limache2–0
A U. Catolica1–1
H Huachipato1–1
A Colo Colo1–0
H Colo Colo0–0
Coquimbo Unido form
WLWWWH Union La Calera1–0
A Nublense2–1
H Colo Colo5–2
H Cobreloa2–1
A Cobreloa1–2
Head to head
0
A.
1
Draw
4
Coquimbo
May 2026Coquimbo Unido – A. Italiano3–0
Aug 2025A. Italiano – Coquimbo Unido0–1
Mar 2025Coquimbo Unido – A. Italiano2–1
Aug 2024Coquimbo Unido – A. Italiano1–1
Mar 2024A. Italiano – Coquimbo Unido0–1
Primera División table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Colo Colo26+2858
2Universidad de Chile26+2448
3U. Catolica26+1646
4Everton de Vina26+1040
5Palestino25+338
6Deportes Limache25+937
7Coquimbo Unido25+335
8Nublense26-935
9D. La Serena26-334
10Huachipato25-633
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: A. Italiano 37%, the draw 27%, Coquimbo Unido 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.27 for A. Italiano, 1.25 for Coquimbo Unido), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
A. Italiano sit 13th on 30 points; Coquimbo Unido are 7th on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.