Over 1.5 goals@1.90
Over 1.5
53%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 1Sunday, 11 October 2026
3K
11th · 5 pts2–2FULL TIME
Mara Sugar
7th · 6 pts28% 3K
33% Draw
39% Mara
OUR PICK
Mara Sugar to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.57
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.98
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.58X3.0222.57
Goals 2.5Over3.63Under1.35
Both scoreGG2.77NG1.51
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.35
Under 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.51
NG
66%
Double chance@1.39
X2
72%
Season stats
3KMara Sugar1.3Goals per game1.0
1.8Conceded per game0.8
1.25Points per game1.50
25%Win rate25%
-2Goal difference1
5Form, last 5 (pts)6
3K form
LWDDDA APS Bomet3–0
H Murang'a SEAL2–1
A Bandari1–1
H Mara Sugar2–2
H Migori Youth1–1
Mara Sugar form
DDWDLH AFC Leopards0–0
A Ulinzi Stars0–0
H Mombasa Elite2–1
A 3K2–2
A Murang'a SEAL2–1
Head to head
0
3K
1
Draw
0
Mara
Oct 20263K – Mara Sugar2–2
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Murang'a SEAL5+27
5Migori Youth4+26
6APS Bomet5+26
7Mara Sugar4+16
8Shabana4+16
9Kenya Police405
10Mathare United405
Match preview
Our model makes Mara Sugar slight favourites, giving them a 39% chance of winning against 33% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.8 goals in total (0.78 for 3K, 0.98 for Mara Sugar), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
3K sit 11th on 5 points; Mara Sugar are 7th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.