Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Prezero Arena
1899 Hoffenheim
23rd · 3 pts3–0FULL TIME
Lyon
12th · 6 pts29% 1899
22% Draw
49% Lyon
OUR PICK
Lyon to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.03
Expected goals
1.51 – 2.01
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.44X4.6322.03
Goals 2.5Over1.47Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.48NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.48
GG
67%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
1899 HoffenheimLyon1.7Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game2.0
1.00Points per game2.00
33%Win rate67%
0Goal difference-1
3Form, last 5 (pts)6
1899 Hoffenheim form
LDWWWA Werder Bremen2–0
A Holstein Kiel1–1
H Bayer Leverkusen3–0
H Lyon3–0
A Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2
Lyon form
WLLWWH Angers2–0
A Paris Saint Germain2–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
H Nice2–1
H Crystal Palace3–2
Head to head
1
1899
3
Draw
0
Lyon
Oct 20261899 Hoffenheim – Lyon3–0
Nov 20241899 Hoffenheim – Lyon2–2
Nov 2018Lyon – 1899 Hoffenheim2–2
Oct 20181899 Hoffenheim – Lyon3–3
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Lyon slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.03 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.51 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2.01 for Lyon), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
1899 Hoffenheim sit 23rd on 3 points; Lyon are 12th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.