Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 5Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Prezero Arena
1899 Hoffenheim
12th · 9 pts2–3FULL TIME
Hamburger SV
15th · 9 pts70% 1899
17% Draw
13% Hamburger
OUR PICK
1899 Hoffenheim to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.43
Expected goals
2.41 – 0.93
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.43X5.7927.83
Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.81NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.54
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.81
GG
55%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Season stats
1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV1.8Goals per game0.9
2.0Conceded per game2.4
1.13Points per game1.13
38%Win rate38%
-2Goal difference-12
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
1899 Hoffenheim form
LDWWWA Werder Bremen2–0
A Holstein Kiel1–1
H Bayer Leverkusen3–0
H Lyon3–0
A Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2
Hamburger SV form
LLLWWA Eintracht Frankfurt3–1
H Eintracht Frankfurt1–3
A SC Paderborn 071–0
H VfB Stuttgart1–0
A 1899 Hoffenheim2–3
Head to head
3
1899
0
Draw
2
Hamburger
Oct 20261899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV2–3
Apr 2026Hamburger SV – 1899 Hoffenheim1–2
Dec 20251899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV4–1
Apr 20181899 Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV2–0
Nov 2017Hamburger SV – 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.41 for 1899 Hoffenheim, 0.93 for Hamburger SV), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
1899 Hoffenheim sit 12th on 9 points; Hamburger SV are 15th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.