Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 7Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Max-Morlock-Stadion
1. FC Nürnberg
2nd · 21 pts4–4FULL TIME
VfL Wolfsburg
3rd · 19 pts47% 1.
23% Draw
30% VfL
OUR PICK
1. FC Nürnberg to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.12
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.43
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.12X4.4123.33
Goals 2.5Over1.58Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
1. FC NürnbergVfL Wolfsburg2.4Goals per game2.5
1.3Conceded per game1.4
2.10Points per game1.90
60%Win rate50%
11Goal difference11
8Form, last 5 (pts)11
1. FC Nürnberg form
WLLDDA FC St. Pauli1–3
A Bayer Leverkusen5–2
H 1. FC Kaiserslautern0–1
A Energie Cottbus1–1
H VfL Wolfsburg4–4
VfL Wolfsburg form
WLDWDH VfL Osnabrück2–0
A SC Freiburg3–2
A VfL Bochum1–1
H 1. FC Heidenheim3–1
A 1. FC Nürnberg4–4
Head to head
0
1.
1
Draw
4
VfL
Oct 20261. FC Nürnberg – VfL Wolfsburg4–4
May 2019VfL Wolfsburg – FC Nurnberg2–0
Dec 2018FC Nurnberg – VfL Wolfsburg0–2
Dec 2017FC Nurnberg – VfL Wolfsburg0–2
Apr 2014VfL Wolfsburg – FC Nurnberg4–1
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model makes 1. FC Nürnberg slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.12 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.84 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.43 for VfL Wolfsburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
1. FC Nürnberg sit 2nd on 21 points; VfL Wolfsburg are 3rd on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.