Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 5Sunday, 11 October 2026 · RheinEnergieStadion
1. FC Köln
13th · 9 pts2–1FULL TIME
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 4 pts54% 1.
22% Draw
25% Borussia
OUR PICK
1. FC Köln to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.29
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.86X4.6224.08
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
63%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
1. FC KölnBorussia Mönchengladbach1.1Goals per game1.4
1.5Conceded per game2.8
1.13Points per game0.50
25%Win rate13%
-3Goal difference-11
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
1. FC Köln form
DWDLWA Union Berlin1–1
H Union Berlin5–0
H FC Schalke 040–0
A Eintracht Frankfurt1–0
H Borussia Mönchengladbach2–1
Borussia Mönchengladbach form
DWWLLH SC Paderborn 070–0
H Karlsruher SC2–0
A VfB Stuttgart2–3
H 1899 Hoffenheim1–2
A 1. FC Köln2–1
Head to head
2
1.
2
Draw
1
Borussia
Oct 20261. FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach2–1
Mar 20261. FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach3–3
Nov 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach – 1. FC Köln3–1
Mar 2024Borussia Monchengladbach – 1. FC Köln3–3
Oct 20231. FC Köln – Borussia Monchengladbach3–1
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes 1. FC Köln slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.00 for 1. FC Köln, 1.29 for Borussia Mönchengladbach), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
1. FC Köln sit 13th on 9 points; Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.